Technical Analysis on U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT)

Monday, September 16th, 2024

In this Wicked Stocks video analysis, we examine the iShares 20-Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which is approaching a critical resistance level. If TLT fails to break through this level, we could see a reversal in the coming weeks. However, a weekly close above this resistance signals a potential long-term buy opportunity, with the potential for continued gains well into 2025.

If you have any questions or suggestions feel free to comment below.

Trade Plan for U.S. Treasury ETF (TLT) - As of September 16th, 2024

Key Levels to Watch:

• Support Level: $95.09 (2-year descending channel top)
• Resistance Level: $104.56 (4-year descending channel top)
• Buy Signal: A close above $104.56 would confirm a long-term buy signal and potential breakout.
•  
• Bearish Targets:
  • $95.09: If TLT closes below this level, it signals a return to a higher interest rate environment.
  • Failure to hold $95.09 could lead to a bearish outlook, with higher interest rates potentially resuming.
• Bullish Target:
  • $104.56: Initial target in the next few weeks, representing the 4-year descending channel top.
  • If TLT breaks above $104.56, this could indicate further upside through 2025.

Trade Strategy:

Bullish Setup:

• Scenario: If TLT holds above $95.09, expect further upside toward the $104.56 resistance level over the next few weeks.

• Buy Signal Confirmation: A close above $104.56 would trigger a long-term buy signal, indicating further gains and a lower interest rate environment through 2025.

• Target: $104.56 in the coming weeks, with the potential for higher targets if TLT breaks through this level.

Bearish Setup:

• Scenario: If TLT fails to hold above $95.09, this could signal a reversal and a return to a higher interest rate environment.
• Bearish Targets:
  • $95.09: If broken, expect rising interest rates through the rest of 2024 and into 2025.

Risk Management:

• For Long Trades:
  • • Place stop-losses below $95.09 to protect against downside risk if the buy signal fails.
• For Short Trades:
  • If shorting near $104.56 (assuming failure to break through), place stop-losses just above this level to guard against a continued breakout.

Summary:

• Bullish Bias: A close above $104.56 signals a buy opportunity with potential for further gains into 2025. Initial target is $104.56.
• Bearish Bias: Failure to hold above $95.09 leaves TLT vulnerable to a return to higher interest rates through the rest of 2024 and into 2025.